그 증거를 살펴보자. 2007년부터 터키는 상하이협력기구 가입을 3차례 신청했으나 성공하지 못했다. 이 기구의 비공식 명칭은 상하이 파이브다.
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| 데이니얼 파이프스 美 중동포럼 총재 |
터키는 세 번째 정회원 가입신청이 거부되자 2011년에 ‘대화 협력국’ 지위를 신청했고 2012년 6월에 신청이 받아들여졌다.
한 달 뒤 터키 총리 레제프 타이이프 에르도안은 러시아 대통령 블라디미르 푸틴에게 이런 말을 했다고 발표했다. “터키를 상하이 파이브 정회원국으로 받아들여 주면 우리나라는 유럽연합(EU) 가입을 재고하겠다.” 이어서 에르도안은 자국의 EU 가입 노력이 난관에 봉착하여 지지부진한 사실을 지적하면서 터키의 상하이 파이브 가입 방안을 다시 거론했다.
터키 외무부는 상하이 파이브 내에서 자국의 지위를 ‘업서버국’으로 격상시키겠다는 계획을 1월31일 발표했다. 에르도안은 2월3일 “우리는 다른 대안을 찾을 것이다”라고 말해 이전에 밝힌 뜻을 재천명한 다음 상하이협력기구의 민주화과정을 찬양하는 한편 유럽인들의 ‘이슬람 혐오’를 비난했다.
그러나 다음날 터키 대통령 압둘라 귈은 에르도안의 발언에 다음과 같이 이의를 제기했다. “상하이협력기구는 EU의 대안이 아니다. 터키는 EU의 기준을 채택하고 이행하기를 원한다.” 이 모든 것은 무엇을 의미하는 것일까.
상하이협력기구 가입을 원하는 터키의 입장 표명은 몇 가지 장애물을 만났다. 터키는 바샤르 아사드의 시리아 정권을 전복시키기 위해 노력하는 데 비해 상하이협력기구는 시리아 정부를 강력하게 지원하고 있다. 시리아가 보유한 러시아 미사일이 터키를 공격하는 것을 막기 위해 나토군 부대가 얼마 전 터키에 도착하여 패트리엇 방어망을 구축하고 있다.
보다 근본적인 문제가 있다. 상하이협력기구 6개 회원국은 이슬람주의를 강력히 반대하지만 에르도안은 이슬람주의를 옹호한다. 에르도안이 상하이협력기구 가입 운운하는 것은 EU에 압력을 가하기 위한 수단에 불과하다는 해석이 나오는 까닭이 여기 있다.
그러나 필자는 3가지 이유로 에르도안의 상하이협력기구 가입 제스처를 진지하게 받아들인다. 첫째 에르도안은 솔직하기로 정평이 나 있기 때문에 그동안의 발언을 통해 ‘가장 중요한 외교정책’을 발표했을 가능성이 있다.
둘째 EU는 가입조건으로 민주주의, 인권, 노조의 권리, 다수결, 평등, 소득의 공평한 분배, 다원주의를 터키에 요구하고 있으나 독재국가 클럽인 상하이 파이브는 이런 가입조건을 요구하지 않는다.
셋째 상하이 파이브는, 서방에 도전하여 그 자리를 대신하려는 에르도안의 이슬람주의 성향과 공통점을 갖고 있다. 상하이 파이브는 반서방적인 정서가 강하다.
터키는 이제 서방의 믿을 만한 동맹국이 아니라 잠복간첩 같은 존재가 되었다.
데이니얼 파이프스 美 중동포럼 총재
워싱턴타임스·정리=오성환 외신전문위원
Trading Europe for the Shanghai Five
By Daniel Pipes
Recent steps taken by the government of Turkey suggest it may be ready to ditch the NATO club of democracies for a Russian and Chinese gang of authoritarian states.
Here is the evidence:
Starting in 2007, Ankara applied three times, unsuccessfully, to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (informally known as the Shanghai Five). Founded in 1996 by the Russian and Chinese governments, along with three former Soviet Central Asian states (a fourth was added in 2001), the SCO has received little attention in the West, although it has grand security and other aspirations, including the possible creation of a gas cartel. More, it offers an alternative to the Western model, from NATO to democracy to the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. After being rejected for membership on the third try, Ankara applied for "Dialogue Partner" status in 2011. In June 2012, it won approval.
One month later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported that he had said to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, "Come, accept us into the Shanghai Five [as a full member] and we will reconsider the European Union." Mr. Erdogan reiterated this idea on Jan. 25, noting stalled Turkish efforts to join the European Union: "As the prime minister of 75 million people," he explained, "you start looking around for alternatives. That is why I told Mr. Putin the other day, 'Take us into the Shanghai Five; do it, and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?" He added that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "is much better, it is much more powerful [than the EU], and we share values with its members."
On Jan. 31, the Foreign Ministry announced plans for an upgrade to "Observer State" at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On Feb. 3, Mr. Erdogan reiterated his earlier point, saying, "We will search for alternatives," and praised the Shanghai group's "democratization process" while disparaging European "Islamophobia." On Feb. 4, President Abdullah Gul pushed back, declaring, "The SCO is not an alternative to the EU. … Turkey wants to adopt and implement EU criteria."
What does this all amount to?
The SCO feint faces significant obstacles: While Ankara leads the effort to overthrow Bashar Assad, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization firmly supports the beleaguered Syrian leader. NATO troops have just arrived in Turkey to staff Patriot batteries protecting that country from Syria's Russian-made missiles. More profoundly, all six SCO members strongly oppose the Islamism that Mr. Erdogan espouses. Perhaps, therefore, Mr. Erdogan mentioned SCO membership only to pressure the European Union or to offer symbolic rhetoric for his supporters.
Both are possible. I take the half-year-long flirtation seriously for three reasons. First, Mr. Erdogan has established a record of straight talk, leading one key columnist, Sedat Ergin, to call the Jan. 25 statement perhaps his "most important" foreign policy proclamation ever.
Second, as Turkish columnist Kadri Gursel points out, "The EU criteria demand democracy, human rights, union rights, minority rights, gender equality, equitable distribution of income, participation and pluralism for Turkey. SCO as a union of countries ruled by dictators and autocrats will not demand any of those criteria for joining." Unlike the European Union, Shanghai members will not press Mr. Erdogan to liberalize, but will encourage the dictatorial tendencies in him that so many Turks already fear.
Third, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization fits his Islamist impulse to defy the West and to dream of an alternative to it. The SCO, with Russian and Chinese as official languages, has a deeply anti-Western DNA, and its meetings bristle with anti-Western sentiments. For example, when Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the group in 2011, no one contradicted his conspiracy theory that Sept. 11 was a U.S. government inside job used "as an excuse for invading Afghanistan and Iraq and for killing and wounding over a million people." Many backers echo Egyptian analyst Galal Nassar in his hope that ultimately the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "will have a chance of settling the international contest in its favor." Conversely, as a Japanese official has noted, "The SCO is becoming a rival bloc to the U.S. alliance. It does not share our values."
Turkish steps toward joining the Shanghai group highlight Ankara's now-ambivalent membership in NATO, starkly symbolized by the unprecedented joint Turkish-Chinese air exercise of 2010. Given this reality, Mr. Erdogan's Turkey is no longer a trustworthy partner for the West, but more like a mole in its inner sanctum. If not expelled, it should at least be suspended from NATO.
stall:멎게 하다, 꼼짝 못하다 disparage:헐뜯다, 폄하하다 conversely:역으로, 정반대로
By Daniel Pipes
Recent steps taken by the government of Turkey suggest it may be ready to ditch the NATO club of democracies for a Russian and Chinese gang of authoritarian states.
Here is the evidence:
Starting in 2007, Ankara applied three times, unsuccessfully, to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (informally known as the Shanghai Five). Founded in 1996 by the Russian and Chinese governments, along with three former Soviet Central Asian states (a fourth was added in 2001), the SCO has received little attention in the West, although it has grand security and other aspirations, including the possible creation of a gas cartel. More, it offers an alternative to the Western model, from NATO to democracy to the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. After being rejected for membership on the third try, Ankara applied for "Dialogue Partner" status in 2011. In June 2012, it won approval.
One month later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported that he had said to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, "Come, accept us into the Shanghai Five [as a full member] and we will reconsider the European Union." Mr. Erdogan reiterated this idea on Jan. 25, noting stalled Turkish efforts to join the European Union: "As the prime minister of 75 million people," he explained, "you start looking around for alternatives. That is why I told Mr. Putin the other day, 'Take us into the Shanghai Five; do it, and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?" He added that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "is much better, it is much more powerful [than the EU], and we share values with its members."
On Jan. 31, the Foreign Ministry announced plans for an upgrade to "Observer State" at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On Feb. 3, Mr. Erdogan reiterated his earlier point, saying, "We will search for alternatives," and praised the Shanghai group's "democratization process" while disparaging European "Islamophobia." On Feb. 4, President Abdullah Gul pushed back, declaring, "The SCO is not an alternative to the EU. … Turkey wants to adopt and implement EU criteria."
What does this all amount to?
The SCO feint faces significant obstacles: While Ankara leads the effort to overthrow Bashar Assad, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization firmly supports the beleaguered Syrian leader. NATO troops have just arrived in Turkey to staff Patriot batteries protecting that country from Syria's Russian-made missiles. More profoundly, all six SCO members strongly oppose the Islamism that Mr. Erdogan espouses. Perhaps, therefore, Mr. Erdogan mentioned SCO membership only to pressure the European Union or to offer symbolic rhetoric for his supporters.
Both are possible. I take the half-year-long flirtation seriously for three reasons. First, Mr. Erdogan has established a record of straight talk, leading one key columnist, Sedat Ergin, to call the Jan. 25 statement perhaps his "most important" foreign policy proclamation ever.
Second, as Turkish columnist Kadri Gursel points out, "The EU criteria demand democracy, human rights, union rights, minority rights, gender equality, equitable distribution of income, participation and pluralism for Turkey. SCO as a union of countries ruled by dictators and autocrats will not demand any of those criteria for joining." Unlike the European Union, Shanghai members will not press Mr. Erdogan to liberalize, but will encourage the dictatorial tendencies in him that so many Turks already fear.
Third, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization fits his Islamist impulse to defy the West and to dream of an alternative to it. The SCO, with Russian and Chinese as official languages, has a deeply anti-Western DNA, and its meetings bristle with anti-Western sentiments. For example, when Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the group in 2011, no one contradicted his conspiracy theory that Sept. 11 was a U.S. government inside job used "as an excuse for invading Afghanistan and Iraq and for killing and wounding over a million people." Many backers echo Egyptian analyst Galal Nassar in his hope that ultimately the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "will have a chance of settling the international contest in its favor." Conversely, as a Japanese official has noted, "The SCO is becoming a rival bloc to the U.S. alliance. It does not share our values."
Turkish steps toward joining the Shanghai group highlight Ankara's now-ambivalent membership in NATO, starkly symbolized by the unprecedented joint Turkish-Chinese air exercise of 2010. Given this reality, Mr. Erdogan's Turkey is no longer a trustworthy partner for the West, but more like a mole in its inner sanctum. If not expelled, it should at least be suspended from NATO.
stall:멎게 하다, 꼼짝 못하다 disparage:헐뜯다, 폄하하다 conversely:역으로, 정반대로
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